11/27/2008 (5:54 am)
Profit warnings cast pall over banks
Bank of Montreal officially kicks off the banks’ fourth-quarter reporting season today, but a string of dour earnings previews and last-minute manoeuvring by its bigger rivals has already given the period an inauspicious start.
Royal Bank of Canada and Toronto Dominion Bank helped fuel that foreboding yesterday. RBC warned its fourth-quarter profit would likely tumble by 15 per cent to about $1.1 billion from $1.3 billion a year ago because of escalating trading losses. It later said it would raise $225 million by selling 9 million preferred shares for $25 each to plump its regulatory capital.
TD, meanwhile, said it would bolster its capital position by selling about $1.2 billion in common stock. Confirmation of the stock sale comes just days after it disclosed about $350 million in credit trading losses for the fourth quarter. The sale of 30.4 million common shares for $39.50 apiece is a discount to yesterday’s closing price of $42.90 on the TSX.
TD chief executive officer Ed Clark said the move was meant to quell "investor concern" about TD’s capital position by providing extra assurance.
"We’re in a world where the market is very skittish, very nervous. They have low visibility about what’s coming in the future," Clark said in an interview. "What it is going to say is that we’ve got an extra layer of security. We really, clearly have bulked up so that we can take whatever the world brings us going forward."
TD’s Tier 1 capital ratio was 8.3 per cent as of Nov.1. That key financial measure would likely rise to 9 per cent following the $1.2 billion common equity issue and a previously announced $220 million offering of preferred shares. Banks are required to maintain a Tier 1 capital ratio of at least 7 per cent.
For its part, RBC said its Tier 1 capital ratio would decline to 9 per cent from 9.5 per cent at the end of the third quarter. Its new $225 million preferred share offering follows a recent $300 million preferred share sale. The moves are expected to add $525 million to Tier 1 capital.
RBC also warned its profits for the three months ending Oct. 31 would be hurt by about $670 million in pre-tax trading losses.
"These are challenging times, with extreme volatility in the global financial markets and an uncertain outlook," stated CEO Gord Nixon businesscards. "However, RBC continues to be in a strong financial position. We are focused on prudently managing our balance sheet, while continuing to provide our clients with excellent financial advice and service."
RBC is the third bank to preannounce partial results. Last week, TD said its fourth-quarter profit would be pinched by $350 million in credit trading losses, while the Bank of Nova Scotia will absorb about $890 million in pre-tax writedowns related to trading and souring investments.
Analysts say writedowns from the "Strong 3" are casting a pall over other banks. "The lack of pre-announcements by the remaining banks is puzzling from our perspective," John Aiken, an analyst with Dundee Capital Markets, wrote in a note.
"However, we cannot believe that arguably three strongest banks operationally incurred significant charges in the fourth quarter while BMO, CIBC and National were unscathed."
Aiken upgraded RBC’s stock rating to "neutral, medium risk" but other analysts were more pessimistic. Robert Sedran of National Bank Financial downgraded RBC to "underperform," citing its "proportionately greater exposure" to capital markets.
Moody’s Investors Service affirmed RBC’s ratings, but changed its outlook to "negative," due to the "potential for further charges."
RBC lost about $1 billion on various securities during the fourth quarter. That was partly offset by a $330 million gain on the change in fair value of its liabilities and a $540 million reduction of its litigation provision related to Enron Corp. Moody’s noted the $1 billion in new losses "come in addition to $1.8 billion incurred up to the third quarter of 2008."
Analysts are also concerned about deteriorating credit quality in RBC’s operations in the United States.
Overall, RBC expects its fourth-quarter provision for credit losses to be about $620 million, nearly double the $334 million taken in the third quarter, partly because of "deterioration in U.S. portfolios" and a weaker loonie.