12/31/2008 (5:17 pm)
Indian Economy Succumbs to Recession After Surviving Terrorism
The terrorist attacks aimed at causing death and destruction in Mumbai last month seem to have left India’s economy relatively unscathed.
Two of the three hotels and the cafe that were the targets of violence in the nation’s financial capital have reopened for business, and the benchmark stock index has risen 7.6 percent since the market closed for one day after the assaults began.
While growth is slowing, the decline began before the attacks, which killed 164 people. Exports have been falling because of the global recession, and the credit crisis has choked off investment. Job cuts have taken a toll on consumer spending, which accounts for 60 percent of gross domestic product.
“The recession is the real killer for the economy, not the terrorists,” said Sherman Chan, an economist with Moody’s Economy.com in Sydney.
India has become increasingly vulnerable to slowdowns and financial crises in other countries.
Trade represented 35 percent of GDP for the year ended March 31, up from 21 percent in 1997-98, the year of the Asian financial crisis, according to the central bank. The commerce ministry said exporters slashed 65,500 jobs between August and October, when India’s overseas sales declined for the first time in seven years.
Investment, which accounted for about one third of economic growth last quarter, is also suffering as global credit dries up and overseas investors curb their appetite for emerging-market stocks.
Overseas borrowings and the sale of new shares on the stock market provided Indian industry with about 40 percent of total funding in the year to March 31, according to Tehmina Khan, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London.
Consumer Spending
At home, efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates in July to a seven-year high have reduced demand for consumer goods.
Passenger-car sales declined 19 percent in November, the most in more than five years. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., India’s biggest maker of sport-utility vehicles and the local partner of Renault SA, shut most of its factories for three to six days this month because of the slowdown in demand.
Inflation has cooled, after peaking at a 16-year high of 12.91 percent in August, giving the central bank room to ease monetary policy. Wholesale prices for the week ended Dec. 13 advanced 6.61 percent, the least in nine months.
Spurring Growth
Measures to spur the economy began on Oct. 6 when Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao cut the amount of money lenders need to set aside as reserves with the central bank payday cash advance. On Oct. 20 he presided over the first rate reduction in four years. India’s repurchase rate is now 6.5 percent, down from the 9 percent peak set in July.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond has fallen 183 basis points to 5.27 percent, the lowest since June 2004, following the attacks on speculation the central bank will further lower rates.
On Nov. 18, then Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said the government was planning a series of fiscal measures to boost growth; details were announced Dec. 7.
Under the plan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will spend 200 billion rupees ($4 billion), or 0.3 percent of gross domestic product, on roads, ports and other infrastructure spending. Budget constraints are forcing India to rely more on interest- rate cuts to buoy the economy.
Grabbing Headlines
“Global uncertainty and fundamental economic news on the ground is still grabbing more headlines than terrorism at this point,” said Adrian Lim, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd. in Singapore.
Indian companies should prepare for economic growth of 7 percent in the year ending March 31, down from 9 percent or more the previous three years, the government said Dec. 23.
That pace is still the second-fastest among the major economies — behind only China. Nokia Oyj, the biggest maker of mobile phones, LG Electronics Inc., a South Korean television and personal computer manufacturer, and PepsiCo Inc., the world’s second-largest maker of soft drinks, have all said they intend to expand in India.
Walldorf, Germany-based SAP AG said after the attacks that its plans are still “on track” to invest $1 billion by 2010. India is the software maker’s biggest development center outside Germany.
Stock Market
The benchmark stock index is down 52 percent for 2008 even after the rebound since the attacks. Overseas investors have purchased $650 million of stocks since Nov. 28.
“We can be hurt but we cannot be knocked down,” Ratan Tata, the chairman of Tata Group, said at the reopening of his company’s Taj Mahal Palace & Tower on Dec. 21. Tata’s 139-year- old company controls India’s biggest steel and truck makers, as well as the largest provider of software services.