11/25/2010 (6:48 am)

Irish Meltdown Lights Fire Under Fellow Debtors: Vanessa Rossi - Bloomberg

Filed under: UK, term |

Ireland had little choice but to accept European Union help to avoid a breakdown in the financial system. There was no other way to rescue the banks without placing the burden on Ireland’s 4.5 million people.

At the peak of the financial crisis, the U.K. and U.S. were able to provide guarantees worth trillions of dollars to support their banks, though the actual costs turned out to be much lower as confidence was quickly restored. The full extent of the guarantee was largely hypothetical. They succeeded because they could make a credible promise of support — Ireland could not.

The Irish banking meltdown, so soon after the euro-area stress tests this year, raises questions over the reliability of these assessments, which failed to put enough emphasis not just on bad debts but on the risk of relying on the wholesale market for funds. The tests, which covered some banks but not others, will cast doubt on the strength of the remaining European banks.

While the Greek crisis served to heat up the debate over enforcing Maastricht rules on limiting budget deficits, Ireland highlights the more complex and far-reaching policy issues that involve systemic risk. There is no rulebook for this, let alone policing mechanisms. But the Irish bailout may lead to demands for wide-ranging restrictions on economic policy and on the size of member states’ banking industries and property markets. And such intrusion may extend beyond the euro area.

Tax Increases

This implication has, to some extent, already surfaced in suggestions that Ireland should give up its 12.5 percent corporate-tax regime, even though this would be unlikely to improve the country’s fiscal position much and may well hurt Irish growth prospects. Extended regulation would have damaging consequences for those economies with large banking centers: The U.K. and France may come under the spotlight, for example.

Risk control versus policy intrusion will become a thorny issue for the EU to grapple with as those countries that provide bailout funds demand ever-more-restrictive conditions and penalties of the debtors — and even seek to use the opportunity to change competitive advantages.

The Irish crisis is so important not because of its scale, but because of its origin. Unlike Greece, Ireland didn’t contravene Maastricht rules — it was an exemplary member state rather than an offender.

From the late 1980s until 2007, Ireland ran budget surpluses, bringing government debt to less than 30 percent of gross domestic product by the mid-2000s.

Celtic Hubris

Ireland’s crisis stems from its oversized property and banking sectors, both burdened with bad debts. The Celtic Tiger enjoyed an average growth rate of about 6.5 percent from 1990 to 2007, which brought rapid prosperity, but also hubris and a housing-market bubble of massive proportions. At its peak in 2006, one house was being built for every 50 citizens in the country — more than three times the figure for the U.S.

Since the peak in late 2006, average house prices have plummeted by more than 35 percent (according to the permanent TSB/ESRI house-price index). This has left many households facing negative equity and has led to a slump in construction. So-called ghost estates may encompass some 300,000 properties in various stages of completion, producing losses of as much as 50 billion euros ($68 billion), similar in scale to the bank bailout announced by the Irish government in September.

Funding in Jeopardy

Now the banks require an even larger recapitalization to avoid collapse. Not only have bad debts escalated but the lenders’ short-term funding is in jeopardy. Ireland’s ability to take on a large recapitalization alone is doubtful since bank liabilities represent more than 10 times the nation’s GDP.

Weak economic data and failing support from the European Central Bank have led to a slump in confidence in the Irish economy and the viability of its banking industry, making funding in the market increasingly costly or impossible to obtain. This is reminiscent of the U.K.’s experience of Northern Rock Plc’s failure.

If Ireland negotiates EU funding of almost 100 billion euros, this may seem to be an adequate provision — it should cover bad debts and recapitalize the banks.

But there are still doubts about whether Ireland can develop a growth strategy that will help repay the huge increase in its public-sector debt (the same question that hangs over Greece). If fiscal tightening pushes the country deep into recession, the loans will be hard to repay. Markets also need to be convinced that Ireland and its banks have a credible plan. Otherwise the funding that the banks depend on won’t return.

If the banks need further financial support, ramping up Ireland’s government debt is no longer a viable option — the EU would have to back the banks or let them fail. Never mind concerns about a bailout for Portugal, the inability to stem the outflow of funds from Irish banks may start a bonfire that spreads beyond Ireland. The bond vigilantes are less of a threat than the banking market turning on its own weaker lenders.

(Vanessa Rossi is a senior research fellow in international economics at Chatham House in London. The opinions expressed are her own.)

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11/24/2010 (6:24 pm)

First Banks extends deadline

Filed under: Finance, marketing |

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11/22/2010 (1:00 am)

Consumer, Business Spending Probably Climbed as U.S. Recovery Accelerated - Bloomberg

Filed under: Loans, marketing |

Consumer spending probably picked up in October, and factories took more machinery orders, showing the U.S. recovery strengthened entering the final quarter of 2010, economists said before reports this week.

Household purchases rose 0.5 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in September, according to the median estimate of 61 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Nov. 24 figures from the Commerce Department. The same day, another report from the agency may show bookings for durable goods excluding cars and aircraft climbed 0.6 percent.

A better job market and bigger paychecks may give consumers the confidence to keep spending during the holiday season, broadening the economic rebound beyond manufacturing. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting this month may help explain why policy makers decided to begin supplying the world’s largest economy with an additional $600 billion in monetary stimulus.

“As businesses invest more and hire more, it fuels consumer spending in what we hope becomes a self-sustaining cycle,” said Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. “We’re seeing evidence of consumer demand returning.”

Companies like Dell Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. are among those benefiting from gains in exports and investments to replace outmoded equipment. Businesses added 159,000 workers to payrolls in October, a fourth month of gains exceeding 100,000, according to Labor Department figures on Nov. 5. Unemployment held at 9.6 percent.

Incomes Grow

The Commerce Department’s consumer spending report will also show personal income rose 0.4 percent last month after dropping 0.1 percent in September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed.

Auto dealers are among retailers seeing demand improve. Car sales in October rose to a 12.25 million unit annual pace, the highest since the government’s cash-for-clunkers program in August 2009, industry data showed this month.

The projected gain in durable goods bookings excluding volatile demand for transportation equipment would follow a 0.4 percent decline the prior month. Total durable goods orders were little changed after a 3.5 percent gain in September, according to economists surveyed.

Dell, the third-largest supplier of personal computers, last week posted earnings in the fiscal third quarter that beat analysts’ predictions. Dell benefited from cheaper prices for parts and buoyant spending from companies that are updating aging personal computers and servers.

‘Refresh Cycle’

“The refresh cycle is very much in full bloom,” Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell said on a Nov. 18 call with analysts.

Manufacturers like Caterpillar, the world’s biggest maker of earthmoving equipment, are filling orders from China and Brazil and domestic customers as firms upgrade equipment and boost plant capacity to meet rising consumer demand.

“The recovery is happening,” Doug Oberhelman, Caterpillar’s chief executive officer, said in an Oct. 21 interview with Bloomberg Television. “The numbers are increasing monthly for us in North America and elsewhere no credit check payday loans.”

The strength in investment helps explain why shares of machinery and parts makers have outperformed the broader index. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Machinery Index is up 34 percent this year, compared with a 7.6 percent gain for the S&P 500.

The economy grew at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the third quarter, more than 2 percent pace estimated last month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed ahead of revised figures from the Commerce Department on Nov. 23.

Home Sales

Housing, the industry that triggered the worst recession in seven decades, is struggling to recover after a homebuyers’ tax credit expired in April and foreclosures keep adding to inventory.

Home sales dropped to a 4.80 million annual pace in October from a 4.84 million rate the prior month, reflecting decreasing demand for existing houses, according to economists surveyed.

The median forecast of economists projected a report from the National Association of Realtors on Nov. 23 will show purchases of previously sold houses fell 1.1 percent to a 4.48 million pace last month. Foreclosure moratoriums across the country along with government investigations into faulty paperwork threaten to delay a recovery as houses slated for repossession take longer to come to market.

Foreclosures

Distressed purchases, which include foreclosures and short- sales in which the bank agrees to take less than the full amount of the mortgage, accounted for 35 percent of existing-home sales in September, according to the agents’ group.

Demand for new homes rose 2.4 percent to a 315,000 annual pace in October, economists forecast before a Nov. 24 report from the Commerce Department. Sales in September were 78 percent below the record reached in July 2005.

On Nov. 23, the Fed will release the minutes of its Nov. 2- 3 policy meeting that led to a second round of unconventional monetary easing in a bid to lower unemployment and prevent inflation from slowing even more. The report will also contain policy makers’ updated economic forecasts.

Bloomberg Survey ============================================================== Release Period Prior Median Indicator Date Value Forecast ============================================================== GDP Annual QOQ% 11/23 3Q S 2.0% 2.4% Personal Consump. QOQ% 11/23 3Q S 2.6% 2.5% Exist Homes Mlns 11/23 Oct. 4.53 4.48 Exist Homes MOM% 11/23 Oct. 10.0% -1.1% Durables Orders MOM% 11/24 Oct. 3.5% 0.0% Durables Ex-Trans MOM% 11/24 Oct. -0.4% 0.6% Cap Goods Core MOM% 11/24 Oct. -0.2% 1.0% Pers Inc MOM% 11/24 Oct. -0.1% 0.4% Pers Spend MOM% 11/24 Oct. 0.2% 0.5% Initial Claims ,000’s 11/24 20-Nov 439 435 U of Mich Conf. Index 11/24 Nov. F 69.3 69.5 New Home Sales ,000’s 11/24 Oct. 307 315 New Home Sales MOM% 11/24 Oct. 6.6% 2.4% ==============================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

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11/22/2010 (12:48 am)

Buffett Tells ABC Rich Americans Should Be Paying `a Lot’ More in Taxes - Bloomberg

Filed under: Loans, UK |

Billionaire Warren Buffett said that rich people should pay more in taxes and that Bush-era tax cuts for top earners should be allowed to expire at the end of December.

“If anything, taxes for the lower and middle class and maybe even the upper middle class should even probably be cut further,” Buffett said in an interview with ABC’s “This Week With Christiane Amanpour” that is scheduled to air on Nov. 28. “But I think that people at the high end — people like myself — should be paying a lot more in taxes. We have it better than we’ve ever had it.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to take up President Barack Obama’s plan to extend some of the tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush when the House returns after Thanksgiving. The legislation would retain lower tax rates and increased credits that apply only to the first $250,000 of a married couple’s gross income or $200,000 of a single person’s.

Unless Congress acts, marginal income tax rates will rise across the board, tax credits that benefit families will be slashed, and tax rates on capital gains and dividends will increase. In addition, a federal tax on estates worth more than $1 million will be resurrected after expiring for 2010.

“The rich are always going to say that, you know, just give us more money and we’ll go out and spend more and then it will all trickle down to the rest of you,” Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said in the interview. “But that has not worked the last 10 years, and I hope the American public is catching on.”

House Democratic Leader Steny Hoyer today didn’t rule out backing a temporary extension of the Bush tax cuts for households earning more than $250,000 a year. He said he plans to discuss the matter with Obama.

“I’m certainly going to talk to him about how we move the ball forward,” Hoyer said today on the CBS “Face the Nation” program.

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11/20/2010 (11:08 am)

Blast fears delay search for 29 New Zealand miners

Filed under: Mortgage, technology |

Fears that dangerous mine gas could trigger a second explosion stalled rescue crew search efforts on Saturday at the New Zealand coal mine where 29 workers are missing nearly a day after a powerful gas blast struck deep underground.

Two dazed and slightly injured miners stumbled to the surface hours after the blast shot up the 354-foot- (108-meter-) long ventilation shaft at the Pike River mine on Friday. Video from the scene showed blackened trees and light smoke billowing from the top of the rugged mountain where the mine is located, near Atarau on New Zealand’s South Island.

Pike River Mine Ltd’s chief executive Peter Whittall said it was not known if the men were alive because nothing had been heard from the 16 employees and 13 contract miners since Friday’s explosion at the mine. Repeated attempts to contact the 29 men had failed.

“We can’t risk sending men into the mine until we know exactly what (the quality of the gas) is,” he said.

A coal-gas explosion was the most likely cause of Friday’s major blast, Whittall said.

“There could be another explosion,” said mine safety expert David Feickert, who noted that officials don’t yet know what caused the original ignition, and rescuers will enter the mine only when it is safe.

Whittall said officials would have enough analysis by later Saturday to decide whether a rescue team can go in, adding that the missing miners would have to deal with such hazards as air pollution, high levels of methane and carbon dioxide, and low levels of oxygen.

Each miner carried 30 minutes of oxygen, enough to reach oxygen stores in the mine that would allow them to survive for “several days,” said Pike River chairman John Dow.

“This is a search and rescue operation, and we are going to bring these guys home,” police superintendent Gary Knowles told reporters.

A company official had earlier said that five men had come out of the mine, based on information provided by the two men who had surfaced. By Saturday morning, however, officials had seen no sign of the other three men.

Unlike the accident in Chile, where 33 men were rescued from a gold and copper mine last month after being trapped a half-mile (one kilometer) underground for 69 days, Pike River officials have to worry about the presence of methane, Feickert said.

He added, however, that the Pike River mine has two exits, while the mine in Chile had only one access shaft that was blocked.

It could be days before it is safe enough for special teams to enter the mine, said Tony Kokshoorn, mayor of nearby Greymouth.

Electricity went out shortly before Friday’s explosion and that failure may have caused ventilation problems and contributed to a buildup of gas. The power outage continued to frustrate efforts Saturday to pump in fresh air and make it safe for rescuers.

Whittall said rescue crews were trying to get accurate gas samples as they couldn’t risk sending men in till they had definitive tests.

Damage to the upper part of mine shaft in the explosion meant “we can’t get accurate samples,” he said. Fresh air was being pumped into the mine, but officials still did not know where the men were.

Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee said gas experts from Australia were flying in to help analyze the gas in the mine. Chile and Australia had both offered assistance, with Australian “Foreign Minister (Kevin) Rudd making it clear that the Australian government would do whatever to help here.”

Australian and British nationals were among the missing men, he said.

Kokshoorn was hopeful the missing workers could survive like the Chilean miners, whose rescue _ played out on live television _ captivated the world.

“We are holding on to hope,” Kokshoorn said. “Look at Chile, all those miners were trapped and they all came out alive.”

Kokshoorn said his community was “grief-stricken” about the 29 miners missing in the mine and had “ground to a halt” as they wait for news about the men.

“The families out there … are all rallying together at the moment, we’re doing everything we can for them but it’s a serious situation down there,” he told TV3’s “The Nation” program.

“We hope they’ve (the missing miners) got to ventilated shafts sucking in oxygen. We’re praying for them,” he said.

Mine rescue teams were “working their guts out” trying to get into the mine and were well trained for emergency situations.

“Incredible” offers of support were flooding in from around the world, including “search and rescue teams from Australia … airlines around the world … saying (they’ll) bring anyone, anywhere, anything you want. It’s just been fantastic,” Kokshoorn said.

Whittall had said Friday that 27 were missing, but on Saturday he told a news conference the number was 29 _ 16 miners employed by the company and 13 contractors.

The coal seam at the mine is reached through a 1.4-mile (2.3-kilometer) horizontal tunnel into the mountain. The seam lies about 650 feet (200 meters) beneath the surface. According to the company’s website, the vertical ventilation shaft rises 354 feet (108 meters) from the tunnel to the surface.

Pike River spokesman Dick Knapp confirmed late Friday the mine had been rocked by a gas explosion, but said its cause was still unknown. It also was not clear if all of the workers underground were together.

Deputy Mayor Doug Truman said the blast was so powerful that one of the workers who came out of the mine described being only a mile (1,500 meters) inside the shaft when he was blown off his machine.

“The mine vents have … scorch marks _ so it must have been a reasonably big explosion,” Truman told New Zealand’s National Radio.

Brownlee said the explosion occurred about 3:45 p.m. (0245 GMT Friday, 9:45 p.m. EST Thursday), and the last contact with any of the miners was about a half-hour later. That contact was with one of the two men who came out.

The two men who surfaced were taken to a hospital for treatment of minor injuries and were being interviewed to determine what happened, Whittall said.

Whittall said the horizontal tunnel would make any rescue easier than a steep-angled shaft.

“We’re not a deep-shafted mine so men and rescue teams can get in and out quite effectively, and they’ll be able to explore the mine quite quickly,” he said.

While Pike River Coal is a New Zealand-registered company, its majority owners are Australian. There are also Indian shareholders.

Pike River has operated since 2008, mining a seam with 58.5 million tons of coal, the largest-known deposit of hard coking coal in New Zealand, according to its website.

It said its coal preparation plant at the site is the largest and most modern in New Zealand and processes up to 1.5 million tons of raw coal a year. It is country’s largest single source of coal exports.

The mine is not far from the site of one of New Zealand’s worst mining disasters _ an underground explosion in the state-owned Strongman Mine on Jan. 19, 1967, that killed 19 workers.

New Zealand has a generally safe mining sector, with 181 people killed in 114 years. The worst disaster was in March 1896, when 65 died in a gas explosion. Friday’s explosion occurred in the same coal seam.

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11/18/2010 (9:32 pm)

Walter Energy negotiating to buy Western Coal for stock, cash worth $3.3 billion

Filed under: economics, legal |

OTTAWA — Walter Energy, Inc. is in talks to buy Western Coal Corp. in a stock-and-cash deal worth $3.3 billion, although a number of details need to be worked out before a final agreement may be reached.

Western Coal, which has formed a special committee of independent directors to review the offer, has agreed to work exclusively with Walter Energy until Dec. 1 as part of a deal to work towards a definitive agreement.

Under the non-binding proposal announced Thursday, shareholders of the Vancouver-based Western Coal would receive a combination of cash and Walter shares valued at $11.50.

Western Coal shares were up $3.38 at $10.76 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, while Walter Energy shares were down 51 cents at $94.20 (U.S.) on the New York Stock Exchange.

The transaction would include a $630-million side deal in which Florida-based Walter Energy will buy 54.5 million common shares of Western Coal, or about 19.8 per cent of the total, from Audley Capital.

Western has three mines in British Columbia, four mines in West Virginia, and one mine in Wales, while Walter Energy has operations in the southern Appalachia region of the eastern U.S. and Alabama’s Blue Creek coal region.

Western Coal said the deal would create one of the world’s largest pure-play, publicly traded metallurgical coal producers — although there are diversified mining companies that would have higher outputs.

“The combined company would have synergistic technical expertise in both open- pit and underground coal mining,” the company said in a statement.

“The combined company’s market capitalization and enhanced financial strength would position it well to execute on strategic growth plans.”

Walter Energy interim chief executive Joe Leonard said the deal would transform his company.

“The transaction would meaningfully diversify both companies’ operating and development portfolios and provide new business opportunities which might not be available to either company on a standalone basis,” Leonard said in a statement.

“The combined company would also be well positioned to participate in further strategic growth opportunities.”

Western expects to produce 6.1 million tonnes of coal for the financial year ending March 31, 2011, growing to 10 million tonnes for its 2013 financial year.

Walter Energy expects to produce 6.6 million tonnes of coal in the 2010 calendar year, growing to 8.6 million tonnes in the calendar year 2012.

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11/17/2010 (6:28 am)

TD, RBC raise mortgage rates

Filed under: Business, Uncategorized |

If worries about the sickly U.S. economy and Ireland’s rocky financial situation seemed remote a few days ago, they shouldn’t anymore.

Those global concerns are pushing up Canadians’ borrowing costs when it comes to buying a home.

TD Canada Trust and the Royal Bank of Canada said separately that they are increasing some of their fixed-term mortgage rates by as much as one-quarter of a percentage point, effective Wednesday.

At both banks, five-year mortgages, one of the most popular among Canadian homeowners, will rise by 0.25 of a percentage point to 5.44 per cent.

Rates on three- and four-year mortgages are also increasing by a quarter of a percentage point, while one-and two-year rates will go up by 0.15 of a percentage point.

Rates for mortgages that have six, seven, and 10 year terms will be unchanged.

Five-year mortgages rates in particular are closely tied to yields (rate of return) in the bond market, which have recently rebounded, following about three months of declines.

That means Canadian banks have been paying a higher rate to borrow in the bond market in order to lend to customers.

“In the past month, the five-year bond yield has risen quite substantially, given that rates are so low,” said Francis Fong, economist at TD Economics

While Canada’s economy remains relatively strong and the Bank of Canada has been hiking interest rates, concerns over the U.S. recovery continue to simmer faxless cash advances.

The U.S. Federal Reserve hinted in late August that it planned to take additional measures to jolt the moribund U.S. economy back to life. Its preferred approach, quantitative easing, amounts to pumping more money into the economy.

The market began pricing in the Fed’s anticipated intervention, though it would take another two months to get all the details - a further $600 billion (U.S.) purchase of Treasury securities.

Since then, yields have rebounded. “The market was likely waiting a bit for the details to see what the price of bonds should really be,” Fong said, adding that the process is similar to the anticipation of a company’s stock price prior to an earnings announcement.

Anxiety in Europe also continues to play a role in the bond market as nervous investors demand higher yields in exchange for higher risk.

Irish bonds fell Tuesday as the prime minister expressed doubts that an agreement to resolve his country’s fiscal crisis could be reached at a meeting of European finance ministers.

Investors are also nervously watching as Greece and Portugal make attempts to manage their own massive fiscal crises.

Meanwhile, North American stocks fell broadly, in part due to concerns about Europe’s debt problems, which may have helped demand for U.S. Treasury debt.

With files from the Star’s wire services

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11/15/2010 (7:36 pm)

Caterpillar to buy mining equipment maker

Filed under: Mortgage, term |

NEW YORK, N.Y. — Caterpillar, the world’s largest construction and mining equipment maker, moved aggressively to capitalize on demand for commodities in emerging markets Monday with a $7.6 billion (U.S.) buyout of Bucyrus International.

Bucyrus makes surface mining equipment used for mining coal, copper, iron ore, oil sands and other minerals. Demand for commodities has languished in traditional markets, pushing global companies like Caterpillar Inc. further into China, India and Brazil, which need such materials to feed surging economies.

The acquisition, and what Caterpillar called a robust outlook for commodities, is being driven by those places that are rapidly “improving infrastructure, rapidly developing urban areas and industrializing their economies.

Last month Caterpillar doubled its third-quarter profit, thanks in large part to growth in those markets.

To land Bucyrus International Inc., based in South Milwaukee, Wis., Caterpillar will pay $92 per share, a 32 per cent premium to Bucyrus’ closing price on Friday. The deal, which is valued at $8.6 billion including debt, is expected to close in mid-2011.

Shares of Bucyrus jumped 30 per cent in premarket trading to $90.26.

Caterpillar during the economic downturn made drastic cuts, vowing then that it would be in a better position when the economy rebounded. It cut 19,000 full-time and 18,000 contract and part time workers payday loans.

The company now appears ready to make good, making a strong big to grab market share anywhere that demand is strong.

“Our performance through the global economic turmoil of 2008-2009 allowed us to emerge with a strong balance sheet and the ability to make strategic investments in companies like Bucyrus,” said Caterpillar chairman and CEO Doug Oberhelman

The Peoria, Ill. company said last month it expects the global economy to grow by about 3.5 per cent next year, on par with economists’ forecasts. But the company predicts developing regions will grow at about double that rate. And even in the emerging economies where growth is slower, Caterpillar said the replacement of worn out machinery will drive sales even before those economies markedly improve.

The deal requires, which got the go-ahead from both company boards, still requires approval by regulators and Bucyrus shareholders. The company expects to save about $400 million a year starting in 2015 from the acquisition.

Canadian company Finning International Inc. is the world’s largest Caterpillar heavy equipment dealer with 13,600 employees at the end of 2008, supplies giant dump trucks and other equipment to mining companies, oilsands operators, construction companies and others around the world.

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11/14/2010 (3:44 am)

China’s Annual $26 Billion Diabetes Bill to Skyrocket, Researchers Report - Bloomberg

Filed under: Finance, Loans |

China’s diabetes-related medical costs, estimated at 173.4 billion yuan ($26 billion) annually, will skyrocket in 10 to 20 years as 100 million sufferers seek treatment and care for related ailments such as kidney failure, stroke and blindness, health officials said.

Diabetes accounts for about 13 percent of medical expenditures in China, the International Diabetes Federation said in a statement distributed before a media briefing in Beijing today to mark World Diabetes Day. The finding is based on preliminary data from a nationwide survey completed in August.

China’s diabetics report three to four times more hospitalizations, out-patient and emergency-room visits than people without the condition, scientists from the Brussels-based federation and the Chinese Diabetes Society said. Their research follows a March study that showed China has 92.4 million people with diabetes, more than twice as many as previously estimated, and the most in the world.

“Diabetes prevalence is skyrocketing in China and people are getting diabetes at a younger age,” the federation said. “China has a window of real opportunity to prevent an epidemic of serious diabetes complications, which will increase spending dramatically.”

China will have lost $558 billion of national income to diabetes and heart disease between 2005 and 2015, the World Health Organization and World Economic Forum said in a 2008 report. Smoking, dietary changes and sedentary lifestyles are stoking a surge in heart disease and stroke in China that will kill an additional 7.7 million people over the next two decades, researchers at New York’s Columbia University said in May.

Stroke, Blindness

Medical costs related to diabetes will “increase rapidly” over the next two decades as about 50 million undiagnosed Chinese seek care, and as they and 50 million Chinese whose illness has been identified start developing preventable complications such as stroke, blindness and kidney disease, the federation said today.

Health expenditures for people in China who’ve had diabetes for at least a decade are more than fivefold those for patients who have had the condition for one to two years, it said.

Fewer than 5 percent of Chinese people with diabetes have experienced stroke, heart attack and heart failure, and fewer than 5 percent report kidney disease, eye surgery, or problems with their feet or legs, according to the survey results. About 5,000 people were interviewed between January 2008 and August 2010 in 12 sites for the nationally representative study. The early results are based on 1,920 responses from five sites.

While half the people interviewed use blood glucose- lowering drugs, only 1 percent use medicines for cholesterol and 13 percent take aspirin to prevent stroke.

“These unused drugs are inexpensive and highly effective and can together lower the risk of complications by 50 percent or more,” the federation said.

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