05/16/2012 (10:56 pm)

US housing starts rose to 717,000 in April

Filed under: management, term |

WASHINGTON • U.S. builders began work on more homes last month, evidence that the battered housing market is slowly healing.

The Commerce Department said today that builders broke ground at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 717,000 homes in April from March. That’s 2.6 percent more than March’s total, which was revised higher. Construction rose for both single-family homes and apartments.

Building permits, a gauge of future construction, fell last month from a 3 ½ year high to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 715,000. But that was because of a 23 percent drop in the volatile apartment category. Permits for single-family homes rose almost 2 percent.

Even with the gains, the rate of construction and the level of permits requested remain roughly half the pace considered healthy. But the increase, along with rising builder confidence and stronger job growth, is a hopeful sign that the home market may finally be starting to recover nearly five years after the housing bubble burst.

Builders have grown more confident since last fall, in part because more people have expressed interest in buying a home. In May, builder optimism rose to the highest level in five years, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index.

Homebuilders reported improving sales and higher traffic from prospective buyers, the survey showed. A gauge measuring confidence in sales over the next six months also rose to 34 from 31 guaranteed high risk personal loans.

Recent job gains have likely made it easier for more Americans to purchase a home. Employers have added 1 million jobs in the past five months. And unemployment has dropped a full percentage point since August, from 9.1 percent to 8.1 percent in April.

Mortgage rates, meanwhile, have fallen to record lows, making home-buying more affordable. Still, many would-be buyers are having difficulty qualifying for home loans or can’t afford larger down payments required by banks.

Though new homes represent just 20 percent of the overall home market, they have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates an average of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

There are some hurdles to a smooth recovery: Builders are struggling to compete with deeply discounted foreclosures and short sales — when lenders allow homes to be sold for less than what’s owed on the mortgage.

Another reason sales have fallen is that previously occupied homes have become a better deal than new homes. The median price of a new home is about 30 percent higher than the median price for a re-sale. That’s nearly twice the markup typical in a healthy housing market.

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03/24/2012 (5:20 am)

Stuck with high gas prices, drivers just pump less

Filed under: economics, term |

Americans have pumped less gas every week for the past year.

During those 52 weeks, gasoline consumption dropped by 4.2 billion gallons, or 3 percent, according to MasterCard SpendingPulse. The decline is the longest since a 51-week period during the recession.

The main reason: higher gas prices. The national average for a gallon of gas is $3.88, the highest ever for this time of year, and experts say it could be $4.25 by late April. As a result, Americans are taking fewer trips to restaurants and shopping malls. When they take a vacation, they’re staying closer to home.

But the decline in gas consumption is also a sign that efforts to push car makers to produce vehicles with better gas mileage are paying off. The average new car now gets nearly 24 miles to the gallon, compared with about 20 mpg just four years ago, according to the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute.

“I’d expect to see lower gasoline consumption for several years to come,” Rice University energy expert Ken Medlock says.

Americans have cut back on fill-ups for extended periods before. In 2008, gas spiked from $3.04 to $4.11 per gallon in seven months. It wasn’t until January 2009, when the national average for gas had dropped to $1.86 that consumption increased. Drivers bought more gasoline for 23 weeks in a row.

“The spike in 2008 was a real shock to the system,” Medlock says. “There’s still a residual impact on people’s driving behavior.”

There were other stretches of reduced gas use, notably two into the 1970’s and one in the early 1980’s. But in those cases, Americans eventually went back to driving big cars and trucks that guzzled gas.

This time may be different. Medlock thinks economic growth will be too modest and gas prices will stay too high for Americans to start driving more anytime soon. Economists expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.5 percent in 2012. The government estimates that gas will average a record $3.79 per gallon for the year.

John Gamel, who oversees MasterCard SpendingPulse’s weekly consumption report, points to rising sales of fuel-efficient vehicles.

“People have gotten used to elevated prices and they’ve made their long-term purchases,” Gamel says. “They’re going to be using less fuel.”

Consumers now care more if a car gets good gas mileage than if it’s reliable, stylish or comes with a great deal, according to a survey of more than 24,000 new-vehicle owners taken last summer and fall by J.D. Power and Associates. That wasn’t the case in the nine previous years that J.D. Power conducted the survey.

Automakers have listened to consumers, and responded to stricter government fuel economy requirements. They’ve improved engines and transmissions so cars burn less fuel. They’ve also made cars more aerodynamic, boosting mileage by cutting wind drag. The government is gradually increasing gas mileage requirements so that by 2025, cars and trucks will have to average 54.5 mpg.

Between February 2011 and February 2012, the combined city-highway mileage of a new vehicle sold in the U.S rose to 23.7 mpg from 22.7. Better gas mileage has a huge impact on the overall economy. At $3.86 per gallon, U.S. drivers would save $35.8 billion per year with a 1 mpg improvement for the entire fleet of cars, trucks and buses, according to Michael Sivak, a research professor with the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute.

Consumers would appreciate the help. The rise in gas prices has been so steep that they’re still spending more on gas than a year ago despite using less.

Gasoline prices rose by 24 percent in the last 52 weeks, according to auto club AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. MasterCard, which collects purchase receipts from more than 100,000 service stations around the country, said spending on gas rose by 20 percent during the period.

In 2011, Americans spent 8.4 percent of their household income on gasoline, or about $4,155, compared with 6.7 percent in 2010, according to experts at OPIS.

W.M. Lewis, a general contractor in Anchorage, Alaska, says he is spending as much as $150 a week on gas. He’s consolidating his errands, but still limiting his driving because fuel keeps getting more expensive.

“It’s changing everybody’s plans,” he says. “You have less money to spend.”

Behind all this is the high price of oil. Brent crude, which is used to price most of the oil used to make gasoline at many U.S. coastal refineries, has jumped by 16 percent this year to more than $124 per barrel. Benchmark U.S. crude has risen 9 percent this year to more than $107 per barrel.

Increased gas use by the growing number of drivers in China and other developing nations more than makes up for the drop in the U.S. That contributes to an increase in global demand for oil, which in turn pushes the price higher. Fear of a disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East also is keeping oil prices at lofty levels.

____

Krisher reported from Detroit. Associated Press Writer Rachel D’Oro in Anchorage contributed to this report.

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02/12/2012 (3:48 pm)

Fed minutes to clarify extent of discord on easing

Filed under: legal, term |

A number of top Federal Reserve officials likely saw a need for additional monetary easing at the central bank’s meeting last month, although there are few signals the central bank will move soon.

Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting, which will be released on Wednesday, should offer more insight than usual into where officials stand on the question of whether more bond purchases are warranted to help a still-frail economy.

While the minutes always give a flavor of the policy debate, the central bank for the first time will provide “qualitative” details on officials’ views on the Fed’s near-record $2.9 trillion balance sheet.

This new information — a counterpart to the first-ever interest rate projections released last month — could suggest a greater willingness to ease further than was evidenced following the meeting. Last month, the Fed said it would likely leave rates near zero until at least late 2014, but offered no details on how it should handle its asset holdings.

The prospects for further easing appeared to be dampened by the latest employment figures, which showed a healthier job market than economists had expected. Still, many feel the economy is unlikely to gain enough vigor this year to satisfy the Fed, and they look for a third round of quantitative easing, probably through purchases of mortgage bonds.

“I doubt the qualitative information from participants on the balance sheet would sway decisively on the near-term prospect of QE3,” said Thomas Lam, an economist at OSK-DMG. “While the hurdle for QE3 seems lower, I don’t view this policy option as imminent at this time.”

Speaking before a group of home builders on Friday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stayed away from any explicit references to monetary policy, but made clear he still does not see the pace of economic growth as sufficient or satisfactory.

“The state of housing has been an impediment to a faster recovery,” he said. “We need to continue to develop and implement policies that will help the housing sector get back on its feet.”

The projections from Fed officials on when interest rates should rise off the floor were all over the place, ranging from this year to 2016. Given varying appetites within the Fed’s policy committee for expanding or shrinking the central bank’s portfolio, the minutes will likely put even more daylight between inflation hawks and doves.

Analysts are not expecting any hard data on balance sheet expectations but rather broad-brush descriptions of policymakers’ leanings. The minutes could say, for instance, that some members favor additional stimulus now, while others would rather take a wait-and-see approach.

There is also a risk that the markets could get a hawkish surprise, for instance, if some officials appear to be making the case for near-term asset sales.

“It will be an interesting trading day when this ‘qualitative information’ begins to include ruminations about when to start shrinking the nearly $3 trillion balance sheet and whether such shrinkage will happen through passive asset run-off or active asset sales,” said Dana Saporta, an economist at Credit Suisse.

Bernanke has said that when the Fed chooses to tighten policy it will first raise the interest it pays on bank reserves, currently at 0.25 percent, only later resorting to selling some of the assets it accumulated in response to the financial crisis.

But not all officials may agree.

Read more

02/06/2012 (1:44 am)

BOE May Increase Its Asset-Purchase Target to $510 Billion, Economists Say - Bloomberg

Filed under: Finance, term |

The Bank of England will raise its target for asset purchases next week as the debt crisis in Europe may have already pushed Britain

01/30/2012 (11:52 am)

Wendy’s reports lower adjusted profit, revenue up

Filed under: legal, term |

Wendy’s Co. says its adjusted earnings fell 29.5 percent in the fourth quarter, while its revenue rose 5.6 percent,

The hamburger chain said Monday its income from continuing operations was $4.3 million in the period ended Jan. 1. That was down from $6.1 million a year ago.

The adjusted number stripped out one-time charges like costs related to selling Arby’s and writing down the value of some assets. The company didn’t report what net income would be if those charges were factored in.

Earnings were 4 cents per share, in line with the predictions of analysts polled by FactSet. After adjusting for the one-time charges, earnings were 1 cent per share.

Wendy’s says revenue rose to $615 million, beating the $613 million predicted by analysts polled by FactSet. More visitors and higher prices helped.

Shares fell 2 percent in early trading to $5.10.

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01/28/2012 (11:12 pm)

Indonesia

Filed under: management, term |

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) –Indonesia may sustain its economic growth, Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan said, as

01/25/2012 (5:08 pm)

Bernanke: Interest rate hike in 2014 “best guess”

Filed under: economics, term |

The Federal Reserve’s announcement that it is unlikely to raise its benchmark interest rate until late 2014 is simply its “best guess,” Ben Bernanke said Wednesday.

The Fed chairman made clear during a news conference Wednesday that the decision to leave interest rates unchanged for three more years was not ironclad.

The central bank’s ability to forecast that far out is limited, Bernanke says, and the Fed could adjust the time frame for when it will raise rates if economic conditions change.

Still, he said the U.S. economy remains weak and that all signs suggest the Fed won’t change its record-low rate for another three years.

“Unless there is a substantial strengthening of the economy in the near term, it’s a pretty good guess we will be keeping rates low for some time,” Bernanke said after the Fed concluded its two-day policy meeting.

The central bank has kept its key rate at a record low near zero for about three years.

Bernanke also said the Fed has not ruled out bolder steps to boost economic growth, such as a third round of bond purchases.

“If inflation is going to remain below target for an extended period and unemployment progress is very slow … there is a case for additional policy action,” he said.

“I would not say we are out of ammunition no teletrack payday loan. We still have tools.”

Prior to the news conference, the Fed downgraded its outlook for U.S. economic growth this year. It forecasts the economy to grow between 2.2 percent and 2.7 percent in 2012, according to its updated economic forecasts. That’s down from November’s forecast of between 2.5 percent and 2.9 percent.

Many economists expect Europe will suffer a recession this year, which will slow U.S. growth.

Still, the Fed said it expects unemployment to fall low as 8.2 percent. That’s an improvement from November’s bottom rate of 8.5 percent.

In December, the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent _ the lowest level in nearly three years _ after the sixth straight month of solid hiring.

Inflation has been relatively tame and the Fed doesn’t see that changing over the next three years.

Bernanke refused to answer a question asking whether he would resign if one of his Republican critics is elected president.

“As long as I have a job to do, I’m going to do everything to help the Federal Reserve. That’s my answer,” he said.

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12/31/2011 (10:56 pm)

Obama Says He Is

Filed under: technology, term |

President Barack Obama, saying he

12/28/2011 (8:28 pm)

Stocks open lower as European worries persist

Filed under: Business, term |

Stocks are opening slightly lower as worries over the European debt crisis persist, overshadowing a strong auction of Italian government debt.

The European Central Bank said the continent’s banks parked a record $590.72 billion overnight at the bank, reflecting distrust in the European banking system.

Italy held two successful bond auctions Wednesday at a substantially lower cost than what it paid in similar auctions last month payday loan lenders. The sales raised hopes that the country would be able to roll over its enormous national debt with new bonds.

The Dow Jones industrial average is down 20 points at 12,272 in early trading. The S&P 500 is down 3 at 1,262. The Nasdaq is down 6 at 2,619.

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12/25/2011 (3:40 am)

Fisher says more Fed easing is “wrong path”

Filed under: News, term |

+%3Cp%3E+More+monetary+stimulus+from+the+U.S.+Federal+Reserve+would+be+the+%22wrong+path%2C%22+despite+the+threat+the+simmering+European+debt+crisis+is+posing+for+the+U.S.+economy%2C+a+top+Fed+official+known+for+his+hawkish+views+on+inflation+said+on+Friday.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EIt+is+up+to+Congress+and+the+President+–+not+the+U.S.+central+bank+–+to+clean+up+the+%22yucky+mess%22+that+is+the+country%27s+debt+and+fiscal+problems%2C+Dallas+Fed+President+Richard+Fisher+said%2C+reprising+what+is+for+him+a+frequent+theme+in+public+speeches.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%22The+Federal+Reserve+has+done+everything+it+can%2C+and+more%2C+to+reduce+unemployment+without+forsaking+our+sacred+commitment+to+maintaining+price+stability%2C+or+crossing+over+the+monetary+river+Styx+into+full-blown+debt+monetization%2C%22+Fisher+told+the+Austin+Chamber+of+Commerce.+%22From+my+standpoint%2C+resorting+to+further+monetary+accommodation+to+clean+out+the+sink%2C+clogged+by+the+flotsam+and+jetsam+of+a+jolly%2C+drunken+fiscal+and+financial+party+that+has+gone+on+far+too+long%2C+is+the+wrong+path+to+follow.%22%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThe+U.S.+central+bank+stood+pat+on+policy+at+its+meeting+Tuesday%2C+leaving+interest+rates+near+zero%2C+and+continuing+to+signal+that+it+will+keep+them+there+through+at+least+mid-2013.+One+policymaker%2C+Chicago+Fed+President+Charles+Evans%2C+dissented%2C+calling+for+further+easing.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3ESpeaking+in+Florence%2C+Italy+on+Friday%2C+Evans+reiterated+his+call+for+the+Fed+to+keep+rates+low+until+unemployment%2C+now+at+8.6+percent%2C+falls+below+7+percent%2C+as+long+as+inflation+does+not+threaten+to+top+3+percent.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EHe+also+said+that+while+the+United+States+needs+better+fiscal+discipline+in+the+medium+and+long+term%2C+some+%22smart+stimulus%22+would+help+a+lot+in+the+short+term.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EDISSENTERS%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EFisher+and+fellow+hawks+Minneapolis+Fed+President+Narayana+Kocherlakota+and+Philadelphia+Fed+President+Charles+Plosser+were+the+dissenters+earlier+this+year+as+the+Fed+eased+policy+to+jumpstart+a+slowing+recovery.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EFisher+on+Friday+said+his+votes+were+driven+not+by+a+fear+that+easing+would+stoke+inflation+but+on+concern+it+would+not+help+on+employment.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EInflation%2C+he+said%2C+is+headed+back+down+toward+the+Fed%27s+2+percent+target%2C+and+recent+economic+indicators+suggest+domestic+demand+is+strengthening.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EStill%2C+souring+conditions+in+Europe+and+slowing+growth+in+emerging+economies+like+China+and+Brazil+threaten+to+knock+the+U.S.+recovery+off+course+again%2C+Fisher+said.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EFinancial+markets+remain+on+edge+about+Europe%27s+ability+to+put+a+floor+under+a+bond+market+selloff+that+is+pushing+borrowing+costs+for+countries+such+as+Italy+and+Spain+toward+unsustainable+levels.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EBut+there+is+little+U.S.+policymakers+can+do+but+%22pray+that+fiscal+and+monetary+authorities+abroad+get+it+right%2C%22+Fisher+said.+To+reporters+after+the+speech%2C+Fisher+said+he+does+not+envision+the+need+for+a+monetary+policy+response+to+Europe%27s+crisis%2C+unless+there+were+to+be+a+panic+of+some+sort.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EIn+testimony+at+the+U.S.+House+of+Representatives+Friday%2C+the+New+York+Fed%27s+powerful+chief%2C+William+Dudley%2C+made+a+similar+point.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%22I+don%27t+anticipate%2C+even+if+the+crisis+in+Europe+were+to+worsen%2C+further+steps+on+the+part+of+the+Federal+Reserve+at+this+time%2C%22+Dudley+told+the+panel+of+lawmakers.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3ESpeaking+in+the+Texas+capital+about+1%2C000+miles+away%2C+Fisher+warned+against+the+Fed+opening+the+spigots+of+liquidity+further+to+get+the+economy+moving+again%2C+when+the+biggest+culprit+in+his+view+was+uncertainty+over+tax+policy%2C+given+the+huge+national+debt.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%22It+may+provide+immediate+relief+but+risks+destroying+the+plumbing+of+the+entire+house%2C%22+said+Fisher%2C+who+often+uses+colorful+metaphors+and+literary+references+to+enliven+his+speeches.+%22Better+that+the+Congress+and+the+president+–+the+makers+of+fiscal+policy+and+regulation+–+roll+up+their+sleeves+and+get+on+with+the+yucky+task+of+cleaning+out+the+clogged+drain.%22%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EFisher+and+his+fellow+hawkish+dissenters+rotate+off+the+Fed%27s+policy-setting+panel+next+year%2C+and+only+one+policy+hawk+–+Richmond+Fed+President+Jeffrey+Lacker+–+will+rotate+in.%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThe+change+in+voting+line-up+means+the+panel+will+lean+more+dovish+than+it+did+last+year%2C+suggesting+Fed+Chairman+Ben+Bernanke+may+have+more+support+for+further+easing+in+the+New+Year.%3C%2Fp%3E++%3Cp%3E%3Ca+href%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Fassets%2Fprint%3Faid%3DUSTRE7BC0CW20111217%27+rel%3D%27nofollow%27%3ERead+more%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E+

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