Money world

As the economy recovers, energy prices are rising and that is placing extra strain on families’ budgets.

Each spring brings a familiar ritual in gasoline markets, rising prices, and this year won’t be an exception. But motorists aren’t likely to pay much more than $3 a gallon, on average, during the peak summer driving season.

Lingering effects of the recession, such as high unemployment, reduced shipping and limited business travel, are keeping a lid on energy demand in the U.S. And global oil supplies are on the rise. For now, these trends are providing energy markets with enough of a cushion to prevent geopolitical tensions from causing severe price volatility.

On Tuesday, the Energy Department’s statistical arm predicted that oil prices would average $80 a barrel this spring, and rise to about $82 a barrel by the end of the year, influenced by robust growth in China. This is consistent with the agency’s past four monthly outlooks. Last year, oil prices averaged about $62, trading in a range between $33.98 and $82.66.

The average nationwide price for regular gasoline was $2.76 a gallon on Tuesday. Because of the anticipated bump in crude prices, the government estimates that gasoline prices will average $2.84 a gallon this year, up from $2.34 in 2009. It’s enough for families to take notice, economists say.

Gasoline accounts for about 4 percent of a typical family’s budget free credit report and score. But consumers tend to pay the increase at the pump instead of driving less. That leaves less to spend on clothing and other discretionary purchases.

Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at the Smith School of Business at California State University, lowered his forecast for U.S. economic growth to 3 percent, from 3.2 percent, because of the anticipated rise in energy costs.

"Higher gasoline prices are like a tax that depresses overall consumer spending," he said.

The more gradual the pump-price increase the more manageable it is for family budgets, retail consultant Howard Davidowitz said. Given time to adjust, people "can decide what to do," Davidowitz said.

Or maybe people will remain tentative about getting behind the wheel more than is necessary.

Americans used 377.5 million gallons of gas per day in 2009, according to Oil Price Information Service, down from 378 million gallons in 2008. Tom Kloza, publisher and chief analyst, expects demand to rise by a fraction of 1 percent this year.

There are other factors keeping Americans off the road beyond high gas prices. Chief among them: lack of job security. Unemployment is 9.7 percent in the U.S., meaning fewer people commuting to work or driving on vacation.

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