Money world

The Federal Reserve’s announcement that it is unlikely to raise its benchmark interest rate until late 2014 is simply its “best guess,” Ben Bernanke said Wednesday.

The Fed chairman made clear during a news conference Wednesday that the decision to leave interest rates unchanged for three more years was not ironclad.

The central bank’s ability to forecast that far out is limited, Bernanke says, and the Fed could adjust the time frame for when it will raise rates if economic conditions change.

Still, he said the U.S. economy remains weak and that all signs suggest the Fed won’t change its record-low rate for another three years.

“Unless there is a substantial strengthening of the economy in the near term, it’s a pretty good guess we will be keeping rates low for some time,” Bernanke said after the Fed concluded its two-day policy meeting.

The central bank has kept its key rate at a record low near zero for about three years.

Bernanke also said the Fed has not ruled out bolder steps to boost economic growth, such as a third round of bond purchases.

“If inflation is going to remain below target for an extended period and unemployment progress is very slow … there is a case for additional policy action,” he said.

“I would not say we are out of ammunition no teletrack payday loan. We still have tools.”

Prior to the news conference, the Fed downgraded its outlook for U.S. economic growth this year. It forecasts the economy to grow between 2.2 percent and 2.7 percent in 2012, according to its updated economic forecasts. That’s down from November’s forecast of between 2.5 percent and 2.9 percent.

Many economists expect Europe will suffer a recession this year, which will slow U.S. growth.

Still, the Fed said it expects unemployment to fall low as 8.2 percent. That’s an improvement from November’s bottom rate of 8.5 percent.

In December, the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent _ the lowest level in nearly three years _ after the sixth straight month of solid hiring.

Inflation has been relatively tame and the Fed doesn’t see that changing over the next three years.

Bernanke refused to answer a question asking whether he would resign if one of his Republican critics is elected president.

“As long as I have a job to do, I’m going to do everything to help the Federal Reserve. That’s my answer,” he said.

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European Central Bank President Mario Draghi

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British and Hong Kong leaders said Monday they will team up to develop London into an international trading center for China’s currency.

British Treasury chief George Osborne said in Hong Kong that his trip to Asia this week, which also includes stops in Beijing and Tokyo, furthers dialogue with Chinese authorities and Chinese and British banks “on establishing London as a new hub for the renminbi market as a complement to Hong Kong.”

Hong Kong’s leader, Chief Executive Donald Tsang said a new private sector-led group will be set up to look at strengthening ties between Hong Kong and London in terms of settlement systems, market liquidity and the development of renminbi financial products.

Beijing is promoting the international use of the renminbi, also known as the yuan. It’s also promoting Hong Kong, a semiautonomous Chinese territory with its own financial system and currency, as an offshore trading center for the yuan.

Last year, yuan-denominated bank deposits in Hong Kong doubled to 630 billion renminbi ($100 billion) as savers sought higher returns from the yuan, which has been strengthening 4-5 percent a year.

Beijing would like to see the currency become an alternative to the dollar, although tight capital controls limit its circulation overseas.

“It’s clear that there’s scope for substantial expansion of the renminbi market in coming years,” said Osborne, who was speaking at a financial conference.

He said that in June 2011, China’s share of world trade was 11 percent but the yuan’s share of global foreign exchange trading last year was only 0.9 percent.

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Funds that give everyone from retirees to money managers easier access to junk bonds are fueling the biggest price swings in more than two years after their buying power surged tenfold.

Exchange-traded funds that track high-yield bond indexes exceed $22 billion, up from about $2 billion three years ago.

While that’s just 2 percent of the $1 trillion in U.S. corporate speculative-grade debt outstanding, ETFs are among the biggest holders of benchmark securities, including those of casino owner Caesars Entertainment Corp. and HCA Inc.

ETFs, which drew scrutiny last year as riskier versions emerged, are adding to volatility because of rules that promote trading. A measure of price swings for junk bonds was seven times higher in November than May, making it harder for the neediest borrowers to raise capital guaranteed high risk personal loans.

Their influence in the market for high-yield, high-risk debt is becoming similar to what ETFs, which have grown to $1.5 trillion from $109 billion in 10 years, have done in other assets.

While cash has poured into ETFs, they haven’t outperformed. Speculative-grade bonds on average returned 40 percent since April 2007, compared with 36.3 percent for investment-grade debt and 37.3 percent for U.S. Treasuries, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.

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Sales (RSTAMOM) at U.S. retailers rose less than projected in December, confirming forecasts for a slowdown in consumer spending at the start of 2012.

The 0.1 percent gain in purchases last month followed a 0.4 percent increase in November, according to figures from the Commerce Department released today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey called for a 0.3 percent rise. Another report showed more Americans than projected filed claims for jobless benefits last week.

Merchants like Williams-Sonoma Inc. (WSM) cut prices during the most important shopping season of the year amid concern stagnant wages and lower property values would hold customers back. The slowdown in demand means households are looking to rebuild savings after spending jumped early in the fourth quarter, showing further job gains are needed to fuel purchases.

Spain’s Parliament approved the new conservative government’s first austerity measures Wednesday, which aim to rein in the country’s swollen deficit with euro8.9 billion ($11.5 billion) in spending cuts.

The measures, which also include income and property tax hikes, were approved by 197 deputies in the 350-seat lower house, where the ruling Popular Party has an absolute majority of 185 seats after a landslide election win in November.

Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro said the measures were severe but necessary, owing to what he called the mismanagement of the economy by the former Socialist government.

“The economy is stopped, we’re on the verge of a recession and the accounts are unbalanced as a consequence, among other things, of the deplorable decisions taken by the former government, which only made the situation worse,” Montoro told lawmakers.

Spain is battling to avert being dragged further into a debt crisis that has already forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek financial bailouts.

In 2010, Spain began to emerge from a near two-year recession triggered by the collapse of a property and construction bubble that had fueled growth for nearly a decade. The country now has a 21.5 percent unemployment rate _ the highest in the eurozone _ and Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said recently the economy would slide back into recession early this year with the last quarter of 2011 and the first of 2012 both registering negative growth.

Montoro accused the former Socialist government of deliberately hiding figures that showed that Spain’s deficit for 2011 would be 8 percent of national income, and not 6 percent as the Socialists had claimed easy to get unsecured personal loans. He said the deviation represented an estimated euro20 billion ($25.4 billion) “black hole.”

However, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has acknowledged that the deficit of regional governments, most of which are run by his own conservative party, was responsible for 75 percent of the deviation.

Other measures in the austerity package include a freeze on civil servants’ salaries and on practically all government hiring. Pensions, however, are to be increased by 1 percent, the only area of spending to rise. Taxes on income and property will also be raised but only for two years.

Treasury Minister Cristobal Montoro said the tax increases will be progressive, with the wealthiest paying more and that the impact on lower-income earners will be minimal.

The government projects that the tax increases will bring in euro6.2 billion ($7.9 billion) on top of the euro8.9 billion saved on the spending cuts.

The package was part of an extension of the 2011 budget because the last government did not pass one for 2012. More austerity measures are expected when the government presents its 2012 budget by the end of March.

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Hungary

- Despite an upswing in hiring during 2011, the jobs crisis could last many more years as millions of Americans struggle to find work.

In Orlando, Florida, Brenda Solomon lost her retail job last May at a department store and was unable to find even temporary work during the holiday season.

“I’ve tried and tried and tried,” Solomon, 58, said on Friday while visiting a job center.

Earlier, the U.S. Labor department said employers added 200,000 jobs during December, many more than expected by Wall Street. In 2011 as a whole, 1.64 million jobs were created, well above the 940,000 in 2010 and the best showing since 2006.

But the amount of jobs in the economy is still about 6.1 million lower than before the brutal 2007-2009 recession. At December’s pace of gains, it would take about 2 1/2 years just to get back to pre-recession levels of employment.

That means many people will be in for an agonizing wait.

In December, 5.6 million of the nation’s unemployed had been out of work for at least six months, the Labor Department data showed, only slightly lower than the previous month.

Laquanda Carmichael has been without work for just over a year and has seen no improvement in the labor market.

“It’s been the same to me. I have a lot of discouraging days,” the 39 year-old former science teacher and hospital worker said.

“I’m looking for anything right now. Warehouse processing, hospitality, anything.”

While jobs creation certainly picked up in the United States during the end of the year, economists point out that even a gain of 200,000 underwhelms considering constant growth in the population and the still-high 8.5 percent unemployment rate.

Princeton University economist Paul Krugman said that at December’s pace it could take a decade for the labor market to recover from the recession.

In a back-of-the-envelope calculation, Krugman was considering that the country’s growing population adds at least 100,000 people to the workforce every month.

“We need much faster job growth,” he wrote on his blog. “It says something about how beaten down we are that this (jobs report for December) is considered good news.”

The unemployment numbers reflect a persistent difference between those with a higher education and those without - especially in certain sectors like engineering.

Nearly 90 percent of 2011 graduates from Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts got jobs or attended graduate school - almost the same level as before 2008.

Jeanette Doyle, director of the school’s Career Development Center, said there was a 7 percent uptick in late 2011 in the number of companies at the school’s fall recruiting event, and 17 companies were on a wait list to get in.

For lower-paid Americans, the picture is very different.

Construction worker Richard White, also at the job center in Orlando, has not had steady work in the last three years, and gets by on occasional stints doing electrical work or carpentry.

In December, the construction industry added 17,000 jobs. But that sector, devastated by a burst housing bubble that helped trigger the last recession, has even farther to go than the rest of the economy before it can recover.

There were still almost a third fewer construction jobs in December than at the industry’s pre-recession peak in August 2006.

As for the December’s advance, White said: “I’m not seeing it.”

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European stocks rose on Friday as investors set aside concerns about the euro’s debt crisis to focus on the impending release of monthly U.S. jobs data, which many hope will confirm a mild recovery in the world’s largest economy.

Asian market indexes closed lower as they reacted to poor economic and financial indicators out of Europe the previous day. That stream of poor European data continued on Friday, with new information showing a drop in retail sales and economic sentiment among consumers and businesses. Unemployment in the 17-nation eurozone, meanwhile, remained at a worrying 10.3 percent.

Traders expect 2012 to be a tough one for Europe, as it slides back toward recession, and appeared relieved to have more upbeat U.S. economic indicators to focus on Friday.

Analysts are projecting hiring gains of about 150,000 when the U.S. Labor Department issues the December jobs report. That would mark a six-month stretch in which the economy generated 100,000 jobs or more in each month. Expectations of the data rose on Thursday, when the private payrolls agency ADP said its own calculations for hiring gains were much stronger than forecast.

An improvement in the U.S. labor market is crucial for global markets because American consumer spending accounts for a fifth of the world’s economic activity. A recovery in the U.S. would also mitigate the impact of the sharp slowdown in Europe.

Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.4 percent to 5,644.55, while Germany’s DAX rose 0.6 percent to 6,131.25. France’s CAC-40 rose 0.8 percent to 3,170.85. Ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, Dow Jones futures rose almost 0.1 percent to 12,334 and S&P 500 futures gained 0.1 percent to 1,274.50.

Although upbeat U.S. data could push stocks higher, gains were likely to be limited by the lingering fears about Europe’s debt crisis. Italy’s benchmark 10-year bond yield edged further above 7 percent, a borrowing rate that is considered unsustainable over the longer term.

Italy, along with many other European governments, has to roll over huge amounts of debt in coming months. It is trying to restore investor confidence in its public finances to get those bond yields down and pay lower rates when it auctions its bonds to raise cash from capital markets.

Traders will watch comments from Italian Premier Mario Monti, who will hold talks in Paris with French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Friday.

Banks, meanwhile, are hurting due to fears that they will take big losses on their holdings of government debt and will struggle to raise new cash to plug those holes.

Trading in UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank, was halted on Thursday after the stock lost a quarter of its value in two days. The bank said Wednesday it would need to offer huge discounts to investors to raise money in a new share sale. The stock was down another 11 percent on Friday.

Longer-term concerns about the euro and the region’s financial system pushed the common currency to 15-month lows on Thursday. It recovered slightly on Friday, rising 0.1 percent to $1.2808.

Outside the eurozone, Hungary was sliding deeper into its own financial crisis. It had to pay a staggeringly high interest rate of 10 percent on its 12-month debt. That is far above the 7 percent level that forced Greece and Portugal to seek emergency bailouts to prevent them from defaulting on their debts.

Investor confidence in the country has deteriorated to the point that the country is considering asking the International Monetary Fund for a standby rescue loan.

Asian indexes ended mostly lower as they reacted to the previous day’s European market jitters. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index closed 1.2 percent lower at 8,390.35. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1.2 percent at 18,593.06 and South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.1 percent to 1,843.14. Benchmarks in Taiwan and Indonesia also fell. India and Singapore rose.

In mainland China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.7 percent to 2,163.39, while the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index gained 0.5 percent to 817.78.

Japanese stocks are hurt by the yen’s rise against the dollar, which makes exports less competitive internationally. On Friday, the dollar dropped another 0.1 percent to 77.07 yen.

Benchmark oil for February delivery rose 60 cents to $102.41 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell by $1.41 to end Thursday at $101.81 in New York.

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FRANKLIN COUNTY • The wound left when Chrysler shuttered its plants in 2008 and 2009 hasn’t healed in nearby Franklin County, where residents for years relied on those paychecks.

The county has seen the sharpest rise in poverty in the metro region since the recession, according to recently released census figures. In 2006, a year before the recession officially began, 10.3 percent of residents lived below the poverty level. That figure hit 17 percent in 2010, the most recent statistics available.

When asked why the county was hit so hard, those who work with the poor unanimously cite the Chrysler closure in Fenton and its lingering effects on jobs.

“I think disproportionately we were hit harder than other areas, and that showed in our unemployment rate,” said Presiding County Commissioner John Griesheimer.

Many in the county haven’t found a way to replace good-paying jobs, and the county is about to be dealt another blow with ties to the auto industry.

Harman-Becker Automotive Systems plans to start shutting its plant in Washington, Mo., as soon as this month, leaving nearly 300 people without jobs, said Sandy Lucy, the city’s mayor.

Most of those jobs are in manufacturing. Many workers earn $40,000 to $60,000 a year assembling auto accessories such as car radios and navigation systems. The company supplied parts to the Chrysler plant.

Harman-Becker’s closure was announced more than a year ago but wasn’t supposed to begin until summer. The plant is now expected to be shuttered by spring.

The plant is an example of efforts to create county jobs. The state and city bent over backward to lure Harman-Becker to Washington in 2005, with incentives worth nearly $3 million.

The company has repaid the state almost $540,000 under a “clawback provision,” which allows the state to recover tax money from businesses that fail to meet economic commitments, according to the Missouri Department of Economic Development.

The company did not have to repay nearly $40,000 it received through the Missouri Quality Jobs program because it created and maintained jobs for three years. Harman-Becker did not respond to an email request for comment.

The pending closure worries Sandy Crider, executive director of Loving Hearts Outreach food pantry in Washington. She sees people coming to the pantry who lost jobs in the auto industry that paid $25 or $30 an hour with health benefits and retirement plans, and who have continued to struggle after those jobs disappeared.

“Now they’re working two part-time jobs for minimum wage and no health insurance,” Crider said. “They’re embarrassed because they can’t find jobs to bring them back to the point where they were in the past.”

A 58-year-old freelance Web developer standing in line recently at the Agape House food pantry in St. Clair said the loss of the plants has crippled the county and sent ripples beyond the auto industry. His own workload is down 40 percent from before the recession, said the man, who asked to be identified only by his first name, Bill, so his customers wouldn’t know his financial situation.

“I could see if you’re a bad person, you’re not going to hold a job,” he said. “But I see a lot of good, hardworking people who want a job and there’s nothing for them.”

Crider said more families are becoming homeless and must move in with other family members, also on fixed incomes.

“That’s what the homelessness looks like in Franklin County,” she said.

Ellen Dietrich, director of community relations of the Jefferson Franklin Community Action Corp., has seen the uptick in poverty, too.

Not long ago, a woman who used to donate came into the social service agency’s office. Instead of writing a check, she asked for help.

“People come in and give us résumés and say if we know of anyone hiring, please pass it along,” said Tammy Stowe, executive director of the Union Chamber of Commerce.

Franklin County government relies heavily on sales tax, but collections hit a low of $4.9 million in 2009. Since then, sales tax revenue has been on a slight upswing, said county Auditor Tammy Vemmer.

To help balance the budget the last couple of years, county employees have been required to clean their own offices to save on janitorial services. This year, unelected, full-time county employees will get a $700 boost in pay. They have not seen raises since 2008, Vemmer said.

Griesheimer, the presiding county commissioner, said the county had been able to avoid layoffs, unlike the private sector.

From January 2009 through March 2011, unemployment in Franklin County topped 10 percent for all but two months, and peaked at 13.4 percent in February 2010. The rate dipped to 8.8 percent in November, the most recent data available.

Christie Bean, of Gerald, has searched for a full-time job for more than five years. “I call the temp service every day,” she said.

Bean lost her assembly-line position when the Daisy BB bullet factory shut down in Salem, Mo. She’d like a permanent factory job but knows she can’t be picky.

“People who are getting jobs are holding onto them,” said Bean, 42.

Her husband sells scrap metal and fixes cars, but work has dried up. He has resorted to selling firewood door to door.

“He’s working hard and he’s not getting anywhere,” said Bean. He once had a good factory job, too, she said, but he lost it because of back problems.

Last month, Bean and her sister stopped at the Loving Hearts Outreach food pantry in Washington. Bean packed a basket of pasta, tuna, tomato soup, applesauce and red beans and rice into the back seat of her car and was grateful for it.

Other county residents are slowly digging their way out. Cody Sansom, 27, once made $20 an hour working construction jobs. When the demand for new houses dried up, so did work. He became homeless three years ago and moved to the Agape House shelter three months ago.

He recently landed a job as a cashier and pizza cook at a convenience store, where he earns minimum wage.

“It’s the lowest I’ve ever made,” said Sansom, who will start classes at East Central College in Union next month. “But it’s a job.”

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