05/12/2012 (4:24 am)

Five questions with Beth Noonan

Filed under: Business, UK |

In late June, after three years of planning, the Helix Center will open, providing lab space and offices to start-up technology, life and plant sciences companies.

The development of the $7.5 million business incubator was shepherded by Beth Noonan, of the St. Louis County Economic Council, who will also oversee operations after the center opens its doors. With low-rent shared labs and flexible office space, the center could be home to as many as 30 fledgling companies. Its proximity to the Donald Danforth Plant Science Center, where very early-stage research is done, and the Bio-Research & Development Growth (BRDG) Park, where more established enterprises find homes, is by design. The center is the latest addition to the region’s bioscience belt and the fifth incubator developed by the council.

How did the project begin and where do things stand now?

The genesis came about when we were approached by some folks from the Danforth Center and Nidus (an entrepreneur network based next door). Their focus was changing. We have the research and the science at the Danforth Center, and BRDG is a post-incubator space, so there emerged this gap in terms of affordable space for companies in the county. We were a natural fit because we run an incubator program. This is just a specialized version. The construction is not quite completed, but we should be done in June. We’ll have 8,000 square feet of office space, 7,800 of lab space.

What’s the objective?

The bottom-line goal of any incubator is to really provide that first commercial space for early-stage companies at an affordable price, and to provide them with shared resources and amenities, and access to other entrepreneurs. They all function in the same way. But in terms of the Helix Center it provides specialized lab space and specialized equipment that early-stage technologies wouldn’t have access to. I think what’s unique about Helix is the close proximity to the specialized resources nearby.

What kind of company do you see finding a home at the Helix Center?

The kind of tenants we’re looking for are folks who are in the bioscience space, which is broadly defined: plant science, life science, clean technology. We’d like to have some nexus to the biosciences. It’s not necessarily something that finds the next drug for cancer, but a support company. A contract research company or doing something with medical records related to biosciences.

How do you go about finding these companies?

We’re doing quite a few things. We’re going to places where start-up companies gather to inform them of the space. We’re getting close to finishing our web site. I’ve been doing speaking engagements. A lot. Our goal is to provide space to companies that are growing in St. Louis. The most likely source of our tenants will be St. Louis.

What ensures that they stay here after they “graduate?”

Of course, we can’t force people to stay in St. Louis. But I think what we’re trying to do with Helix and what a lot of folks in the region are doing, is help continue strengthening the environment for entrepreneurs and making sure people have access to resources. We have early-stage companies here all the way up to Fortune 500 companies. We can help them make those connections. We have other resources to help them as we grow.

 

BETH NOONAN

Title • Vice President bio-sciences and technology, business development division, St. Louis County Economic Council.

Education • BA in Linguistics, Brown University, masters degrees in social work and jurisprudence, Washington University

Family • Husband, Frank Pfau; two children, Emily, 12, and Michael, 9.

Hometown • Chesterfield

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05/10/2012 (11:08 am)

Why Google’s self-driving car may save lives

Filed under: UK, management |

Google’s self-driving car got its license this week as the state of Nevada became the first in the nation to license the company’s vehicles.

And while a computer-driven car may seem unsettling, the technology represents a potential leap forward in auto safety.

More than 30,000 people are killed each year in crashes despite huge advances in auto safety. The overwhelming majority of those crashes are caused by human-driver error.

Computer driven cars could reduce traffic deaths by a very significant degree, said David Champion, head of auto testing at Consumer Reports, but only if all cars are computer-driven.

"I think if all the cars were self-driving, it would be a benefit," he said. "I think a mixture would be a bit chaotic."

That’s because humans are better at predicting the behavior of other humans than computers could ever be, he said.

"When I’m approaching an intersection, I look to see of the other driver is looking at me," said Champion. "If he’s looking somewhere else and inching forward, I’m going to lift off the gas."

For the foreseeable future, human "drivers" will continue to bear the ultimate responsibility even in Google’ (, Fortune 500)s self-driving cars. This means you won’t be able to lounge in the back seat and check email on your way to work. You’ll still have to sit in the driver’s seat and pay attention.

Self-driving cars, like Google’s, use sensors to watch cars, pedestrians and other obstacles. They combine a number of technologies that are already available on cars today — including GPS tracking, wheel motion sensors and radar — with additional technology and sophisticated software that allow the car to read street signs and signals and actually drive itself through traffic.

Google’s cars, modified Toyota Priuses, are still in the testing stages and aren’t available to the public. But some so-called "driver assistance" technologies are already helping to lower traffic deaths in cars you can buy now.

Electronic Stability Control which uses computers to help drivers maintain control during abrupt maneuvers, has been shown to reduce fatal crashes by as much as a third.

Cars of the future: They’re going to be tiny and weird

ESC is now required on all new cars but was first used, on a wide scale, on SUVs. That’s why, last year, statistics showed top-heavy SUVs to be less prone to roll over in real-world crashes than regular cars.

Beyond that, there are various other "driver assistance" technologies.

Blind spot alerts warn drivers of cars in adjacent lanes and forward collision alerts sound an alarm when a driver is closing in too quickly on a car ahead payday loans in one hour.

"We’ll start seeing more features that will migrate from just these alerts and warnings to taking a little more control," said John Capp, director of active safety technology at General Motors (, Fortune 500).

GM’s new Cadillac XTS, for instance, will brake automatically if a driver fails to respond to an imminent collision. Nissan’s () Infiniti division has a several models that provide slight braking to nudge a vehicle back into its lane if it begins to drift out.

Many luxury cars are now also available with "active cruise control" that allows a car driving at highway cruising speeds to automatically maintain a safe following distance behind the car ahead. In some models, these systems can work even in stop-and-go city traffic.

Systems like these could be helpful, said Champion, but also present the possibility of over-reliance or abuse.

"It all comes down to the person behind the wheel using the system," he said.

Sometimes these systems can cause confusion. For instance, some reports of unintended acceleration in Toyota cars were triggered by drivers failing to understand how an "active cruise control" system worked.

With these systems, drivers set the active cruise control to a certain speed. If there’s a slower car ahead, the cruise control will automatically slow the vehicle down to maintain a safe distance between the two cars. Once the slower car moves away, active cruise control will accelerate to the higher preset speed. This acceleration can be startling to drivers unfamiliar with the system.

There is at least some evidence, however, that "driver assistance technologies" do work. A recent study by the Highway Loss Data Institute, an insurance industry group, indicated that the forward collision avoidance system in the Volvo XC60 helped reduced accident claims by 27%. Volvo’s system warns the driver of an impending collision and applies the brakes if the driver takes no action.

One technology the Google car doesn’t utilize, but which would help make self-driving cars much more effective, Champion said, is vehicle-to-vehicle communication. So called V2V communication uses transmitters to send and receive signals that tell other cars where each car is, where it’s headed and how fast it’s moving. The devices can also communicate with transmitters along the road.

V2V is already in advanced stages of development by a consortium of automakers and the federal government’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. 

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05/07/2012 (2:52 am)

Hollande Vows to Fight Austerity After Beating Sarkozy - Bloomberg

Filed under: UK, Uncategorized |

Francois Hollande, who defeated French President Nicolas Sarkozy to become the first Socialist in 17 years to control Europe

05/05/2012 (12:00 pm)

Tilly’s shares rise after IPO

Filed under: Business, legal |

Shares of Tilly’s Inc. rose Friday above their offered price in the clothing retailer’s debut on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Irvine, Calif.-based company’s stock jumped $2.30, or 14.8 percent, to $17.80 in morning trading after opening at $18.80 and briefly rising as high as $19.29 per share.

The company had priced its initial public offering of 8 million shares at $15.50 per share. It is offering 7.6 million shares and selling stockholders are offering 400,000 shares.

Tilly’s sells surf-inspired and casual West Coast-styled clothing and accessories at its chain of 140 stores in 19 states. It was founded by Hezy Shaked and Tilly Levine, who opened their first store in Orange County, Calif., in 1982 and are still principal shareholders.

Tilly’s expects to receive net proceeds of about $107.6 million after expenses. It won’t receive any proceeds from the sales by the selling stockholders cheap credit report.

Tilly’s is a holding company and does its business through Tilly’s World of Jeans & Tops. It plans to use proceeds from the IPO to pay shareholders with a stake in Tilly’s World Jeans & Tops, which will be made into a wholly owned subsidiary of Tilly’s.

In the fiscal year ending Jan. 28, the company earned $34.3 million. That was up 41 percent from the prior year. Its revenue rose 20 percent to $400.6 million for the year.

The underwriters of the IPO included Goldman, Sachs, BofA Merrill Lynch, and Piper Jaffray. Underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to an extra 1.2 million shares to cover overallotments.

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05/03/2012 (11:24 pm)

Yahoo confirms misleading info on new CEO’s resume

Filed under: legal, money |

A disgruntled Yahoo shareholder questioned the qualifications and integrity of recently hired CEO Scott Thompson after exposing a misrepresentation about the executive’s education.

The fabrication confirmed Thursday by Yahoo Inc. gives New York hedge fund manager Daniel Loeb more artillery as he tries to topple a board of directors favored by Thompson, who became CEO of the troubled Internet company four months ago.

Loeb, whose fund Third Point owns a 5.8 percent stake in Yahoo, gained more leverage when he discovered Thompson doesn’t have a bachelor’s degree in computer science from a small college in Easton, Mass., as Yahoo stated in a regulatory filing last week.

Thompson only has an accounting degree from Stonehill College, an accomplishment that Yahoo also listed in the filing. The accounting degree was the only one listed in Thompson’s resume last year by eBay Inc. when he was still running that company’s PayPal payment service. He graduated in 1979, according to Stonehill’s website.

Yahoo confirmed Thompson’s credentials had been exaggerated in the recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company, which is based in Sunnyvale, Calif., brushed off the distortion as an “inadvertent error.”

But Loeb pounced on the misinformation as a violation of Yahoo’s code of ethics and called for an independent investigation to determine whether Thompson had misled the company’s board about his technology credentials. He also cited the mix-up as an example of Yahoo’s poor corporate governance.

“If Mr. Thompson embellished his academic credentials we think that it 1) undermines his credibility as a technology expert and 2) reflects poorly on the character of the CEO who has been tasked with leading Yahoo at this critical juncture,” Loeb wrote in a letter to Yahoo’s board on Thursday. “Now more than ever Yahoo investors need a trustworthy CEO.”

In the past, other companies have suspended or fired executives who were caught lying on their resumes.

Yahoo hired Thompson to reverse years of financial lethargy that set in at the company even as more advertising shifted to the Internet. The funk has weighed on Yahoo’s stock, which has been hovering between $10 and $20 for most of the last three years. Yahoo shares fell 27 cents to close at $15.40 on Thursday. That’s well below the $33 per share that stockholders could have gotten in May 2008 if the board had accepted a takeover offer from Microsoft Corp.

The company stood behind Thompson in its statement payday loan. “This in no way alters that fact that Mr. Thompson is a highly qualified executive with a successful track record leading large consumer technology companies,” Yahoo said. “Under Mr. Thompson’s leadership, Yahoo is moving forward to grow the company and drive shareholder value.”

Tensions between Loeb and Thompson escalated since late March when Yahoo appointed three new directors to its board. In doing so, Yahoo snubbed Loeb, who had been lobbying for a board seat along with three allies who he believes have the skills necessary to help Yahoo rebound from its long-running struggles. At the time, Thompson made it clear that he and the Yahoo committee overseeing the search for new directors had concluded Loeb wasn’t the best candidate.

Loeb is waging a campaign to persuade Yahoo’s shareholders to elect him and his allies to the board at the company’s annual meeting. The date of that meeting still hasn’t been set.

Besides ripping Thompson, Loeb also sought to discredit Patti Hart, one of the Yahoo directors he wants bounced from the board. Hart led the committee that recommended Yahoo’s new appointments to the board.

In his letter, Loeb noted that Yahoo’s recent SEC filing says Hart holds a bachelor’s degree in marketing and economics from Illinois State University. In its response, Yahoo clarified Hart received a bachelor’s degree in business administration with specialties in marketing and economics.

Thompson, 54, has mostly cut costs to boost profits since taking over as Yahoo’s CEO. Last month, he laid off about 2,000 employees, or 14 percent of the workforce, in the biggest payroll purge in Yahoo’s 17-year history. He also disclosed plans to close about 50 Yahoo services that haven’t been attracting enough users or generating enough revenue.

He has made modest progress on other financial fronts. Yahoo registered its first year-over-year increase in quarterly net revenue since 2008 during the three months ending in March.

Even though he doesn’t have a computer science degree, Thompson has a background in technology. He served as PayPal’s chief technology officer for three years before being promoted to the payment service’s president in 2008. He also previously worked as chief technology officer at credit- and debit-card processor Visa USA.

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05/02/2012 (1:04 pm)

U.S. stocks have lots to consider

Filed under: money, technology |

U.S. investors were set to hold steady at Tuesday’s open, awaiting new reports on manufacturing, auto sales and corporate results for clues about the strength of the U.S. economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average (), S&P 500 () and Nasdaq () futures were all little changed. Stock futures indicate the possible direction of the markets when they open at 9:30 a.m. ET.

On tap for Tuesday are new readings on manufacturing, construction spending and auto sales. Investors will be searching for signs to assuage concerns that the recovery in the U.S. economy may be stalling.

The latest round of corporate results include reports from BP () and Pfizer (, Fortune 500).

U.S. stocks finished in the red Monday, ending a mostly sour month on a weak note. Following three months of solid gains, all three major U.S. indexes posted their worst monthly returns of the year in April.

Resurfacing concerns about Europe and a possible hard landing in China have helped put a brake on the momentum from earlier this year.

A report on manufacturing in China rose slightly, which could help allay concerns about the economy slowing too quickly.

Meanwhile, Australia’s central bank announced it was cutting its key interest rate by 0.5 percentage point to 3.75%, due to below trend growth both in Australia and globally. It was the bank’s biggest rate cut since February 2009, when global financial markets were still in near free fall.

On Monday, Spain’s government said its economy declined for the second straight quarter, revealing that the nation is in recession. The report came with Spanish bond yields still at perilously high levels, and just days after Standard and Poor’s downgraded the country’s credit rating.

World markets: Britain’s FTSE 100 () edged higher 0.4% in midday trading. Markets in Paris and Frankfurt were closed for the May Day holiday.

Japan’s Nikkei () ended down 1.8%, while markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai were closed for the holiday.

Economy: The April installment of the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing Index is expected to come in at 53, down from 53.4 in March, according to a survey of analysts by Briefing.com. Any reading above 50 still indicates growth in the sector that has helped to lead the U.S. economic recovery.

NYSE operator hit by trading slump

April U.S. auto sales are forecast to be up to a seasonally-adjusted annual sales pace of about 14.3 million vehicles. That would be a rise from the year-ago rate of 13.4 million, but down from March sales’ pace of 14.7 million.

U.S. automakers General Motors (, Fortune 500) and Ford Motor (, Fortune 500) are both forecast to report lower sales.

March construction spending is expected to have risen by 0.5%, according to economists’ estimates.

Companies: Oil company BP posted a drop in quarterly earnings to $1.52 a share from $1.76 a year earlier, missing estimates of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. BP joined Exxon Mobil (, Fortune 500) and ConocoPhillips (, Fortune 500) as major oil companies to miss forecasts for the first quarter. Shares of BP lost 2.8% in premarket trading.

Drugmaker Pfizer (, Fortune 500), a Dow component, reported earnings of 58 cents a share for the first quarter, down from 60 cents a share a year earlier but 2 cents better than forecasts. Shares of Pfizer slipped 0.7% in premarket trading.

Delta Air Lines (, Fortune 500) announced plans Monday to purchase an oil refinery outside of Philadelphia, a novel approach to reducing its fuel costs. Shares gained 1.7% in premarket trading.

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Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost ground slightly against the euro, but gained on the British pound and Japanese yen.

Oil for June delivery lost 30 cents to $104.57 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery fell $1.50 to $1,662.50 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged higher, but the yield was little changed at 1.91%.  

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04/14/2012 (4:12 am)

Foreclosures rise in metro St. Louis

Filed under: UK, Uncategorized |

Foreclosures increased through most of the St. Louis metro area during the first three months of the year, RealtyTrac reported Thursday.

The increases varied widely by county.  In St. Louis County, where 1,874 homes were threatened with foreclosure or already in bank’s hands, the number rose by 3 percent during January-to-March period, compared to the last three months of 2011.  But St. Charles County saw a 30 percent increase, bringing the number of foreclosed and threatened homes to 663.

The severity of the foreclosure situation also varies by area.  St. Louis city is faring the worse, with one out of 218 homes in foreclosure.  By contrast, only one in every 957 homes in Monroe county were in foreclosure.

Foreclosure hit one in 234 homes in St. Louis County, one in 213 in St. Charles County, one in 228 in Jefferson, 539 in Lincoln, 253 in Madison and 274 in St. Clair.

Nationally, RealtyTrac reported that foreclosures declined 2 percent in the first quarter, and were 16 percent below the same period in 2011 on line pay day loans.  Foreclosures were at their lowest since late 2007.

Analysts generally expect foreclosure filings to increase in the wake of February’s settlement between the government and major mortgage servicers over abusive foreclosure practices.

“The low foreclosure numbers in the first quarter are not an indication that the massive reservoir of distressed properties built up over the past few years has somehow miraculously evaporated,” said Brandon Moore, chief executive at RealtyTrac, an online market for foreclosed homes.  “The dam may not burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will burst.”

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04/12/2012 (3:08 pm)

Court: Managers don’t have to ensure lunch breaks

Filed under: Loans, online |

In a case that affects thousands of businesses and millions of workers, the California Supreme Court ruled Thursday that employers are under no obligation to ensure that workers take legally mandated lunch and rest breaks

The unanimous opinion came after workers’ attorneys argued that abuses are routine and widespread when companies aren’t required to issue direct orders to take the breaks. They claimed employers take advantage of workers who don’t want to leave colleagues during busy times.

The case was initially filed nine years ago against Brinker International, the parent company of Chili’s and other eateries, by restaurant workers complaining of missed breaks in violation of California labor law.

But the high court sided with businesses when it ruled that requiring companies to order breaks is unmanageable and those decisions should be left to workers.

The opinion written by Associate Justice Kathryn Werdegar explained that state law does not compel an employer to ensure employees cease all work during meal periods, instead saying the employee is at liberty to use the time as they choose.

“The employer is not obligated to police meal breaks and ensure no work thereafter is performed,” Werdegar wrote.

The court’s decision could greatly reduce the numerous class-action lawsuits surrounding the issue that cost companies millions of dollars in legal costs.

“The courts are making it clear that you have to create a system and a procedure that fully allows employees an opportunity to take breaks and meal periods, and if they do that they do not have to be Big Brother and individually monitor each employee to ensure that they’ve taken every bit of their breaks,” said Steve Hirschfeld, founder and CEO of the Employment Law Alliance, an employer-side legal trade group.

Attorneys for workers said low-wage workers such as those at Chili’s and other restaurants face unique issues that dissuade them from requesting meal and rest periods.

“The decision … should have required employers to take affirmative steps to provide meal periods, and not just adopt policies that allow them,” Fernando Flores of the Legal Aid Society-Employment Law Center, said in a statement.

“The (court) previously held that employees who are denied their rest and meal periods face greater risk of work-related accidents _ especially low-wage workers who engage in manual labor,” Flores said.

The Brinker decision doesn’t account for the public health and general welfare argument and weakens these standards for millions of low-wage workers across California, he added.

State law has mandated meal and rest breaks for decades. But in 2001, California became one of only a few states that impose a monetary penalty for employers who violate these laws, requiring employers to pay one hour of wages for a missed half-hour meal break. There is no federal law requiring employers to provide such breaks.

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04/11/2012 (1:08 am)

Casinos have generally flat March

Filed under: USA, online |

St. Louis area casinos turned in generally flat results in March, the slack time between winter and the start of the spring tourism season.

The area’s six gambling halls took in $103.2 million last month, up 3 percent from the $99.8 million take in March 2011. Last month’s results marked the second full year of operation of Pinnacle Entertainment’s River City casino, which shows steady double-digit monthly revenue gains.

Figures out Tuesday from regulators in Missouri and Illinois showed that three St. Louis-area casinos posted revenue gains in March while three experienced generally small declines.

Ameristar, in St. Charles, and Harrah’s, in Maryland Heights, frequently trade places as the area’s largest casinos by revenue. It was Harrah’s turn in March, when it edged Ameristar $25.2 million to $24.8 million in monthly revenue. Argosy Alton continued to struggle the most, with revenue down 9.3 percent over March 2011 figures.

April’s results could provide a clearer look at what has become a mature St. Louis casino market. In April 2011, revenue growth continued after the expansion-driven bump River City provided. The unusually mild weather this month and the start of baseball season, which is bringing more tourists — and gamblers — could show further evidence that St. Louis is a slowly growing but steady billion-dollar casino market.

 

Scuffling along

Casino            March change           Revenue (in mill.)

Harrah’s             8.1 percent                   $25.2

River City         12.7 percent                   $19.3

Lumière Place   -2.7 percent                  $15.4

Ameristar         -0.1 percent                  $24.8

Casino Queen   2.8 percent                  $12.1

Argosy Alton    -9.3 percent                    $6.4

Market total      3.3 percent                $103.2

Sources: Missouri Gaming Commission, Illinois Gaming Board

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04/09/2012 (6:48 am)

LightSquared: The wireless industry’s biggest gamble is failing

Filed under: UK, Uncategorized |

The end appears near for LightSquared, one of the wireless industry’s grandest and riskiest gambles.

It’s odd to think of a company backed by $5 billion as a startup, but that’s what LightSquared is. It wanted to become the country’s fifth nationwide wireless carrier by going toe-to-toe with giants like Verizon and AT&T — an ambitious vision it had a real shot at pulling off.

Now, after a series of potentially fatal regulatory setbacks, it’s mulling bankruptcy. Philip Falcone, head of LightSquared’s majority owner Harbinger Capital Partners, told Reuters the company is "seriously considering" the option.

In a subsequent email to CNN, Falcone said: "I’ve said it is and always has been one of our options."

Chapter 11 wouldn’t necessarily spell the end, but it would move the goal posts much farther away. That’s a disaster for a company already backed up in its own end zone.

The unraveling began in February, when government regulators said they would bar the company from launching its network. LightSquared failed to convince the Federal Communications Commission and the National Telecommunications and Information Administration that its network would not interfere with GPS signals.

CEO Sanjiv Ahuja stepped down two weeks later. In March, LightSquared’s biggest partner, Sprint Nextel (, Fortune 500), ended its $9 billion agreement with the company.

In a time when many big companies prefer sitting on their cash to making major capital investments, LightSquared swung for the fences. Building a nationwide wireless network from scratch is bogglingly expensive, but LightSquared is backed by a nearly $3 billion investment from Harbinger and more than $2 billion from other investors.

What made those investors believe their billions could pay off was that LightSquared is sitting on a truckload of valuable wireless spectrum.

LightSquared hoped to enter the wireless market as a wholesale provider of 4G service. That means it would provide the infrastructure and the network, but it would rely on its business partners to sell the service. Carriers aren’t exactly known to be good retailers, so the thinking was, "Why not let the experts handle that?"

The idea took off: The company signed 40 partners from a wide array of businesses, including retailers like Best Buy (, Fortune 500), device manufacturers like AirTouch and other carriers like Sprint and Leap Wireless ().

By partnering with LightSquared, Best Buy could have sold devices with Best Buy branded wireless service, Sprint could get much-needed capacity, and device makers could package service with their smartphones. Imagine one day being able to buy an iPhone with Apple’s (, Fortune 500) own wireless service.

LightSquared planned to severely undercut its competition. By selling only efficient 4G service — and not operating legacy 2G and 3G networks that are costly to maintain — LightSquared said it could offer its service starting at just $7 per gigabyte.

Verizon and AT&T offer data rates of around $15 per gigabyte. But smartphone customers are required to buy voice and data packages, which start at $75 for 450 minutes and 2 GB. Since few actually come close to reaching their limits, the average U flexcheck cash advance.S. smartphone customer pays about $56 for every gigabyte they use, LightSquared claims.

"You can triple or even quadruple our rate, and it’s still a dramatic savings over what consumer pays today," former CEO Ahuja told CNNMoney in late 2011. "We think the average price of wireless service should drop by 50% once we launch. The American consumer is simply paying too much."

LightSquared was attempting to fill a niche that no one else is playing in.

Verizon (, Fortune 500) and AT&T (, Fortune 500) are reluctant to sell their services wholesale, because spectrum is so scarce — and even if they did, they wouldn’t be able to match LightSquared’s proposed prices.

There’s also Clearwire (), but Clearwire’s model is primarily to sell supplementary coverage in high-density areas to existing carriers. Other potential entrants, like cable giant Comcast (, Fortune 500), kicked the market’s tires and fled. The investment costs are simply too steep, Comcast executives have said.

Of course, when things sound too good to be true, they usually are.

LightSquared’s spectrum was originally licensed only for satellite services, not the much stronger terrestrial transmissions LightSquared wants to put there. Its entire business hinges on getting a waiver for its spectrum use.

That initially seemed likely. The Federal Communications Commission granted a temporary waiver, and powerful Washington backers supported LightSquared’s vision.

But concerns about signal interference with GPS devices plagued LightSquared, and in the end, regulators decided that it was too risky. They revoked the waiver.

Falcone says he remains determined to fight the good fight. But if LightSquared doesn’t get regulatory green lights by the end of the year, the company will run out of money and will be forced to sell off its assets, according to Jonathan Chaplin, analyst at Credit Suisse.

That’s because LightSquared has relatively fixed costs — with or without customers.

The company predicts its network and infrastructure will cost $30 billion to operate and maintain over the course of the next five years. It will cost LightSquared $30 billion to operate a network with zero customers and $30 billion to run a network with 25 million customers.

With customers, Chaplin thinks the venture could have been profitable just a few years after launching. But Chaplin now thinks that other potential customers will follow Sprint’s lead and dissolve their deals.

"The great shame about LightSquared is that it could have stirred up the industry, and it could have benefited consumers tremendously," Chaplin said. "But with no spectrum, there’s just the fixed cost of running a network."

Hence the bankruptcy chatter. That’s the risk of giant gambles: Sometimes you roll snake eyes.

But if LightSquared collapses, it will take with it the wireless industry’s best shot at launching an entire wave of new rivals to the strengthening AT&T/Verizon duopoly.

-CNN’s Felicia Taylor contributed to this story 

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